Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 202.697470 249.018995 307.465110 388.217166 499.531238 6.517594e+02 8.835425e+02
2025-01-19 145.985501 196.035568 267.626978 382.420465 572.351871 8.966034e+02 1.553754e+03
2025-01-26 125.635045 180.604636 267.428984 425.254622 733.607684 1.391527e+03 3.247596e+03
2025-02-02 110.836017 167.805358 265.027807 460.964551 904.168444 2.078288e+03 6.902847e+03
2025-02-09 99.104092 156.372851 260.462816 489.483792 1080.886653 3.023387e+03 1.552293e+04
2025-02-16 88.974267 145.119267 252.552133 507.164287 1247.343234 4.249574e+03 3.764388e+04
2025-02-23 80.496839 134.987520 243.914810 519.462835 1412.963188 5.898870e+03 1.090634e+05
2025-03-02 71.622160 122.446069 227.217749 505.024071 1483.017695 7.330035e+03 3.121656e+05
2025-03-09 64.349842 111.854057 212.431639 490.460451 1545.776832 9.042530e+03 1.302605e+06
2025-03-16 57.822934 101.804270 196.876300 468.486985 1564.656965 1.061751e+04 9.516405e+06
2025-03-23 56.466510 102.117797 205.230537 521.596374 1988.400649 1.972888e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 52.962900 97.360097 200.393828 531.121965 2212.883928 2.948448e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 50.307574 94.298730 199.774870 557.706757 2607.950735 5.425006e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 46.360353 87.865695 189.255862 544.669404 2733.383839 7.811593e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 45.670767 88.720659 198.402506 612.799576 3657.212845 2.833751e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 44.506854 88.287047 203.934873 670.888104 4731.147194 1.658423e+06 NaN
2025-05-04 43.030378 86.884458 206.372304 717.921406 5934.395512 4.438667e+07 NaN
2025-05-11 41.224438 84.423890 205.103731 747.333425 7108.975134 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 39.380796 81.635401 202.258521 767.902334 8336.287045 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 36.866356 76.852102 192.147388 743.760976 8614.435953 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 34.589961 72.467630 182.667656 719.533175 8849.715833 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 32.313950 67.878005 171.838860 683.214309 8681.828830 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 32.242979 69.074400 180.646644 771.479320 12793.798431 NaN NaN